Washington State Carbon Emissions Estimation: 2025 – 2050

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Emissions from the operations of buildings are significant, well-understood contributors to state, national, and global GHG emissions. However, the contribution of embodied carbon is less well understood. Even at the global level, embodied carbon estimates are typically based on manufacturing emissions estimates from the production of a handful of the highest-impact materials (e.g. concrete, steel, aluminum, and wood). While these are important contributors, they are still only a percentage of embodied carbon.

This data gap also exists in Washington State. The most recent Washington State GHG inventory estimates total state emissions in 2021 at 96.1 mmtCO2e, using a production-based approach, except for electricity, where they use a consumption-based approach (WA Department of Ecology 2025). As described by the authors of the WA State GHG Inventory, “consumption-based electricity emissions for Washington provide a more accurate picture of emissions from electricity, because Washington imports electricity from nearby states in the Northwest Power Pool.” The same can be said for industrial and other emissions related to embodied carbon, though a consumption-based inventory is not currently available. 

As we approach global climate targets in 2030 and 2050, it is increasingly important to have data on where the largest, most urgent opportunities are for reducing emissions, including embodied emissions. This study, therefore, aims to (1) fill the gap in current GHG estimates for Washington State by estimating both operational and embodied emissions attributable to buildings and infrastructure and (2) develop projections for how those emissions will increase between 2025 and 2050. 

This paper includes estimates of:

1. embodied carbon from the material sourcing and construction of new buildings and their sites;
2. embodied carbon from the maintenance, repair, and renovation of existing buildings, typically part of the ‘use’ stage in an LCA;
3. embodied carbon from potent refrigerant leakage from air-conditioning, refrigeration equipment, and foams in existing buildings, and is typically part of the ‘use’ stage in an LCA;
4. embodied carbon from the recycling and disposal of materials generated in the construction of new buildings and in the upkeep, renovation and demolition of existing buildings;
5. operational carbon from fossil fuels and electricity usage in buildings and infrastructure; and
6. embodied carbon from the material sourcing and construction of infrastructure and roadways, and the full life cycle of parks and open spaces.

Washington State Carbon Emissions Estimation: 2025 – 2050

Danksagung

We would like to thank the Stolte Foundation for making this project possible by providing funding and posing the critical question about how embodied and operational carbon stack up in Washington State. 

On the data and modeling side, we greatly appreciate our collaboration with Climate Positive Design’s Pamela Conrad and Greg Barger, which enabled us to use Pathfinder data to inform the estimates for parks and site impacts. We are also grateful to Tamara Dumitrescu of Washington State’s Department of Ecology for sharing her time, expertise, and HFC modeling tool with our team. Finally, we want to express appreciation for the whole University of Washington Life Cycle Lab team, specifically Brad Benke and Kathrina Simonen, who supported our use of the public benchmarking dataset that underpins much of this study. 

Cover Image by Roman Pohorecki.

Document Versions

• 7/22/2025: First public release of document

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